Share This Article:

Back in 2007, I attended a CIO event in Manhattan. Attendees were grouped into tables of eight, with each person representing a different vertical and given a diversity of perspectives. During one of the lulls, I asked my table what I thought was a simple question: Who will be the top five vendors five years from now, in terms of relevance?

I said, “There’s Cisco, HP, IBM, Microsoft…”

Just there I was stopped dead in my tracks. Everyone at the table objected. Microsoft was not going to make the cut.

I was stunned. In the fall of 2007, it was inconceivable that Microsoft wouldn’t make cut. As bad as Windows Vista was, the Windows franchise remained dominant. Microsoft had spent years and billions of dollars fixing its security issues, and it was pressing further into the enterprise with business applications, communications and collaboration tools.

Ah, but the CIOs saw something coming that wasn’t apparent to those deep in the technology stack. Sometimes us techies get a little too close to the bytes and can’t see the trends. And, in this case, not just Microsoft’s luster was eroding – so too was its unquestioned support. The tech market was on the precipice of the cloud, and a whole class of competitors was racing in to disrupt Microsoft’s dominance.

Put a gun to my head and force me to choose the top 5 vendors for 2017 – I don’t think I could do it. Yes, the first three are always easy. IBM has size, longevity and breadth to its advantage. Cisco demonstrated in 2011 its ability to correct mistakes and reinvigorate itself; and, of course, the network isn’t going anywhere. In 2007, my third choice was HP, seeing its growth and expansion into a portfolio company; while it’s still on the mend, it’s hard to say if HP can pull off a Cisco-like recovery.

So which companies would be the next three?

Google is a good choice, as its rich search-marketing business continues to underwrite its expansion. Google is already the largest mobile operating system vendor; it’s a leader in cloud services through Google Apps and Gmail; and it’s branching out into device manufacturing with the acquisition of Motorola Solutions. As mobility is the wave of the future, Google could be among the top 5.

If it’s about mobility, then shouldn’t Apple be on the list? Apple is the market leader in tablets and smartphone sales. It’s a consumer powerhouse, and that’s providing the muscle for expansion into the enterprise. Apple is gearing up a massive channel development (we hear) and continues to lead the market in both device design and business-model innovation.

When it comes to business models, Amazon.com could soon be considered an enterprise IT company (if it isn’t already). Amazon is more than just an online retailer; it’s one of the largest cloud companies in the business. Its foray into tablets with an innovative “pay-as-you-go” business model could reshape the mobility market. It’s probably a contender.

Speaking of contenders, is there any doubt Salesforce.com is here to stay and could rival its sibling, Oracle? The company that pioneered software-as-a-service is reinventing the cloud model for solution providers, giving developers a platform on which to build new applications and plow into new markets.

New markets is what future communications is all about, especially when talking about video. This is where Microsoft plays with its Lync server and Skype acquisition. But it has a lot of company in the quest for video and unified communications dominance – most notably alliance partner Avaya, which is enjoying a rebirth of its own.

And what about Dell? Five years ago, Dell was a takeover target. Today, it’s hard to call Dell healthy based on its financials, but it’s certainly turned the corner from a PC vendor with a decidedly consumer slate to an enterprise portfolio company with storage, networking, cloud, services and, increasingly, security.

In the security market, Symantec is still top dog. But Symantec is more than security. It’s increasingly about linking identities with data to provide availability, confidentiality and integrity in the cloud and mobile world. It has the potential of breaking into the top 5.

If Symantec is a contender for the list, then so too is CA Technologies. With its financial misdeeds well in the past and a new management team at the helm, CA is fast becoming a cloud management and platform company. Its various storage, IT management, virtualization and security products are making it a powerhouse of cloud enablement.

And these are just a sampling of the obvious contenders. There are more vendors worthy of consideration – EMC, VMware, Citrix, VCE, Riverbed, Juniper, to name a few. And there are many non-traditional and emerging vendors that may sneak up on the market and become important players – perhaps even top 5.

If you had to make a top 5 list for 2017, who would make the cut? Give it a shot. It’s not easy.

One Response to “Who will be the Top 5 Vendors in 2017?”