The risk of the United States and other developed economies sliding into recession due to a global trade war initiated by the Trump administration eased temporarily when the White House reversed course on its universal tariff policies for 90 days. However, this pause does little to mitigate the broader threat of an economic slowdown.
This pause gives technology vendors and channel partners time to adjust their strategies and go-to-market positioning to weather any negative consequences resulting from the tariffs and trade wars in the offing.
Meanwhile, Channelnomics has updated its Channel Recession Survival Guide, which provides strategic direction on how vendors can leverage their partner relationships to augment capacity and maintain market coverage in challenging economic climates.
Financial analysts and economists agree that President Donald Trump’s tariff strategy will drive up costs and suppress economic activity, affecting the U.S. economy as much as the economies of its trading partners.
With the temporary suspension applying to most countries — though notably not China — market watchers are hoping for a shift in strategy. They expect the administration to adopt more conventional trade negotiation tactics and strike agreements with key partners.
While this would bring much-needed stability, the likelihood of uncertainty abating remains low. Economists and political analysts observe that negotiations with the Trump administration are often hampered by inconsistent and unpredictable behavior. Policy reversals can arrive without warning, often by tweet.
Channelnomics aligns with the view of many economic think tanks: The uncertainty will persist, and the administration is unlikely to abandon its belief in tariffs as a universal tool of influence. As a result, recession remains a real possibility.
Channelnomics is tracking these developments closely to assess their impact on the channel. Conversations with vendors, distributors, and partners worldwide reveal growing concern about the ripple effects of tariffs and disrupted access to low-cost global trade. These are among the expectations:
The escalating tariff dispute is already reverberating across global stock exchanges, threatening to stall what had been a robust tech market. At the start of the year, partners in North America and Europe expressed high confidence in their growth prospects for 2025.
According to the Channelnomics 2025 Channel Forecast, most partners expected customer spending to rise by 10% to 14%, with vendors projecting similar growth in indirect sales. That optimism is now tempered by the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and their potential to disrupt momentum.
The Channel Recession Survival Guide offers practical strategies for managing lower sales, constrained budgets, and shifting customer demand. It provides vendors with guidance for maintaining go-to-market capacity by leveraging the flexibility of the channel.
These recommendations are not theoretical. Vendors such as Dell and Intel have already adopted similar approaches to reduce the cost of sales while expanding coverage and capacity through partners.
The situation is serious and evolving quickly. Channelnomics will continue to monitor global trade developments and assess their impact on the channel. We recommend initiating internal planning discussions using the Channel Recession Survival Guide as a foundation.
Larry Walsh is the CEO, chief analyst, and founder of Channelnomics. He’s an expert on the development and execution of channel programs, disruptive sales models, and growth strategies for companies worldwide.